The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a report predicting a doubling of data center energy use over the next five years to 3% of global energy use, driven in part by artificial intelligence applications.
Energy use from data centers is predicted to double over the next five years to 3% of global energy use. AI-specific power consumption could drive over half of this growth globally, the report found. Some data centers today consume as much electricity as 100,000 households. The hyperscalers of the future could gobble up 20 times that number, according to the IEA.
By 2030, data centers are predicted to run on 50% renewable energy, the rest comprising a mix of coal, nuclear power, and new natural gas-fired plants. The findings paint a bleak picture for the climate, but there’s a silver lining, the IEA said. While AI is set to gobble up more energy, its ability to unlock efficiencies from power systems and discover new materials could provide a counterweight.
“With the rise of AI, the energy sector is at the forefront of one of the most important technological revolutions of our time,” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director. “AI is a tool, potentially an incredibly powerful one, but it is up to us – our societies, governments, and companies – how we use it.” AI can help to optimize power grids, increase the energy output of solar and wind farms through better weather forecasting, and detect leaks in vital infrastructure.
The technology could also be used to more effectively plan transport routes or design cities. AI also has the potential to discover new green materials for tech like batteries. However, the IEA warned that the combined impact of these AI-powered solutions would be “marginal” unless governments create the necessary “enabling conditions.” “The net impact of AI on emissions – and therefore climate change – will depend on how AI applications are rolled out, what incentives and business cases arise, and how regulatory frameworks respond to the evolving AI landscape,” the report said.
The IEA predicts data centers will contribute 1.4% of global “combustion emissions” by 2030, almost triple today’s figure and nearly as much as air travel. While that doesn’t sound like much, the IEA’s figure doesn’t account for the embodied emissions created from constructing all those new data centers and producing all the materials therein.
Alex de Vries, a researcher at VU Amsterdam and the founder of Digiconomist, believes the IEA has underestimated the growth in AI’s energy consumption. “Regardless of the exact number, we’re talking several percentage of our global electricity consumption,” said de Vries. This uptick in data center electricity use “could be a serious risk for our ability to achieve our climate goals,” he added.
Claude Turmes, Luxembourg’s energy minister, accused the IEA of presenting an overly optimistic view and not addressing the tough realities that policymakers need to hear. “Instead of making practical recommendations to governments on how to regulate and thus minimise the huge negative impact of AI and new mega data centers on the energy system, the IEA and its [executive director] Fatih Birol are making a welcome gift to the new Trump administration and the tech companies which sponsored this new US government,” he said.
Aside from AI, there are more proven ways to curb energy use from data centers. These include immersion cooling, pioneered by startups like Netherlands-based Asperitas, Spain’s Submer, and UK-based Iceotope. Another is repurposing data center heat for other applications, which is the value proposition of UK venture DeepGreen. All of these solutions will need to scale up fast if they are to make a dent in data centers’ thirst for electricity. Ultimately, we also need to start using computing power more wisely.
